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You do have people with university training in the private sector, but often not working in the profession for which they trained. So, you quit as a physician and become a maid at a tourist hotel. It turns incentives about acquiring skills upside down. That’s a solvable problem, yet they haven’t been able to do it, and so a partnership with a European or a Canadian or a U.S. pharmaceutical company could be a great asset in the future.Have the doors opened to U.S. company investment?
It is probably the best, most well-trained workforce at the cheapest labor-market price that any international investor could find anywhere in the world. Cuba’s main resource to engage in the world is no longer sugar cane. On the front page of a Cuban newspaper recently there was an item about a two-story home in the old city of Havana that crumbled—and that in the course of its collapse, killed four people. … Well, no. Cuba projects a population of 10.8 million in 2030. But China matters in one decisive way. It then suffered a catastrophic plunge in the first four years of the 1990s. You might realize that the one useful skill gained from your time at medical school is learning English. Universal education was brought in, the famous health service … It doesn’t mean that you can have a banquet every day, but that basic nutritional needs are met. You earn more money because your most marketable asset turns out to be that you can communicate in English.This is a tragedy for the individual and for the society.
That’s grim.Cuba’s population, now shy of 11.2 million, is shrinking and rapidly aging. In 2013 in U.S. dollar-equivalents, Cuba exported $343 million to China and imported $1.5 billion from it. The short version of Cuba’s recent economic history is that it peaked in the last quarter of 1984 and began a slow slide during the second half of the 80s. The boom in U.S.-Cuba trade has yet to materialize.Cuba does have a private sector, which it calls it the “non-state sector.” It includes mixed enterprises (foreign firms and state enterprises) and a “self-employment sector.” In a population just shy of 11.2 million, there are over 500,000 people who have self-employment licenses, according to President Raúl Castro’s report to Cuba’s National Assembly in July 2015.
They don’t know how to market them effectively. There is no sales tax in Cuba. In the 1960s and 1970s Cuba seemed, on the face of it, to be making good progress. There is no personal income tax in Cuba. One reason why the average number of employees is four is because, once you reach five or more employees, your tax rate goes up. Cuba is, in many ways, an economy stuck in time and at risk of further unraveling. There was a spike in the 2000s when Venezuela began to provide petroleum at deeply discounted market prices, and that peaked just before the 2008-09 financial crisis.After 2009, the Cuban economy really didn’t recover. That’s not the way you might have guessed China would be advocating, hut in fact China’s role in Cuba is to try to persuade the Cuban government to emulate its own market opening.The extraordinary competence of Cuba’s political leaders is sometimes easy to miss. The lack of trade with the U.S. may have been a reason - not the reason - Cuba's economy was and remains in the dumpster. That’s a burden for growth, but also creates business activity and opportunity: Cuba suddenly needs to build retirement communities. That means levels of education are good. There are some exceptions—for example you could be a tutor in the private sector, but you cannot be a classroom teacher. As expected, 2019 will be a very tense year in terms of the economy and will also be difficult in political terms.
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